The Talent Pipeline Collapse: Why AI Efficiency Is Creating a Workforce Crisis
Generative AI is changing how work gets done at unprecedented speed. By 2030, nearly 40 percent of workers will see their core skills disrupted by AI-enabled systems. For many organizations, this looks like progress. Experts work faster, output increases, and labor costs decline. But beneath these gains is a structural failure that most leadership teams are not addressing. The bond between novice and expert is breaking. When organizations optimize only for short-term efficiency, they undermine the very pipeline that produces future expertise. The Disappearance of Entry-Level Work In roles where AI can perform most core tasks, the share of workers in those occupations has fallen by roughly 14 percent over the past five years. This is not primarily due to declining demand. It is a deliberate organizational choice. As AI systems handle routine work, teams prioritize speed and accuracy. Novices are increasingly excluded because they slow delivery and increase the risk of errors. Manage...